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Принципы технического анализа

Technical Analysis
— технический анализ рыночной конъюнктуры. Система методов анализа тенденций движения цен, их разброса и устойчивости, объема операций и других характеристик
Technical analyst, technician
— специалист по техническому анализу
technical conditions (of a market)
— специфические рыночные факторы спроса и предложения, влияющие на конъюнктуру
technical decline (rally)
— ухудшение конъюнктуры под влиянием внутренних факторов (превышение предложения над спросом), а не внешних
technical analysis tool
— инструмент (метод) технического анализа
financial instrument
- финансовый актив или обязательство, являющееся объектом торговли на рынке (ценные бумаги, депозиты, контракты и т.д.)
instrument of loan
— залоговый инструмент
instrument of payment
— средство платежа
instrument of transfer
— трансфертный документ
chart
— график
chartist
- специалист по прогнозированию биржевой конъюнктуры
chart pattern
— фигура технического анализа
price pattern
— график колебания цен
bull market
- рынок «быков», период повышения фондовой конъюнктуры, от которого выигрывают «быки»
bull
— покупатель, играющий на повышение
bull position
- позиция «быка», когда покупка ценных бумаг превышает их продажу
bullish pattern
— график с повышением фондовой конъюнктуры
bear market
— рынок «медведей», период понижения фондовой конъюнктуры
bear
- торговец, играющий на понижение («медведь»)
bear closing
— обратная покупка «медведями» акций, которые они продали до этого в надежде на снижение цен
market stages
— циклы конъюнктуры рынка
sideways market
- цикл с горизонтальным движением цен, которые изменяются в узких пределах
trend
— тренд, тенденция развития рынка или движения цены (курса)
to trend up
— двигаться вверх
to trend down
- двигаться вниз
Trendline
1) прямая линия на графике движения цены, отражающая основную тенденцию
up trend



down trend
- тренд понижения (цен)
ranging market
- узкий разброс цен
no trend (congestion)
- перегрузка, «пробка»
to congest (to range)
- вызывать горизонтальное движение цен
low (point)
— низкое значение(цены)
high (point)
— высокое значение (цены)
pivot point
- центр, опорная точка
climax (peak)
— наивысшая точка
test
— приближение цены к точке сопротивления или поддержки
retest
— повторное приближение цены к точке сопротивления (поддержки)
close price
— курс (цена) при закрытии торгов
price limits
— ценовые лимиты (уровни цен в течении рабочего дня на бирже)
price pattern
- фигура движения цены на графике
reversal patterns
- фигуры движения цен, указывающие на смену тенденции (восходящий/ нисходящий треугольник)
price range
- амплитуда колебаний цен (низкая/ высокая) за период
resistance (level)
— уровень сопротивления (приостановка подъема конъюнктуры)
support (level)
- уровень поддержки (приостановка падений конъюнктуры)
break out (level)
— «побег», нарушение устоявшегося движения цен
correction
- коррекция, обратное движение цены или индекса (обычно снижение), выправление (исправление отклонения) тенденции
target price
— плановая, ожидаемая цена
upside
— повышательное (движение цены)
downside
— понижательное (движение цены)
accumulation
- накопление, аккумуляция
to accumulate
— накапливать
accumulation area
— зона аккумуляции, движение цены в определенном коридоре в период накопления, за которым следует резкий подъем
pullback
— «откат»




Market participants never individually agree about the price of a currency, but the overall consensus of the market produces the fair value for the currency. Market price movements are never in one direction for long. A currency may strengthen, then weaken and strengthen again. The technician's challenge is to determine the levels to which a currency will zig up running into selling pressure (resistance level) and the levels to which a currency will zag down running into buying interest (support level). The use of Technical Analysis (ТА) in forecasting time series data continues to grow in popularity, with much of the growth resulting from the increasing need for accurate and timely forecasts of diverse instruments in a global market place. The basic tenets of traditional Technical Analysis, measuring direction and speed of price movement remain little hanged, however.
to estimate — оценивать, намечать
о: to grasp - понимать
i to predict — предсказывать
to pinpoint - определять точно
л assumption -предположение, допущение


The first concept to grasp is that technicians believe that all available information (historical data, forecasts and market expectations) is being acted on and is reflected in the price. Given market generated data (price, volume, open interest etc), technicians measure direction using a variety of methods. First, there is the trend, which shows the direction in which prices are moving, within different time frames-long term to intra-day. Second, there are chart patterns, which can pinpoint forecasts in both direction and magnitude. The patterns can be in the form of continuation or reversal and show clearly the breakout level and extension targets. Third, momentum studies can be used to gauge changes in trend and probable direction, as well as the timing of moves.
• History repeats
Technical analysis is based on human psychology which tends not to change. The assumption made is that the key to understanding the future lies in the past. Patterns exist. Patterns can estimate future direction. The theory here is that a trend in place is more likely to continue than reverse. People use ТА to identify patterns so as to ride the rising trends, until indicators show signs of a reversal.
• Price information is complete or markets discount everything
Anything that can affect the market price of a commodity — political rumours, changing economic conditions or even psychological perceptions, is already reflected in the market price. Price action according to Technical Analysts should reflect actual shifts in Supply and Demand. Example: Assume the price of gold is increasing. Economists may say that there is a plenty of gold supply and that prices should not be increasing. The market would say that we know there is plenty of gold supply, the price reflects this but demand for gold has increased and therefore prices should be increasing. The weaknesses of fundamental analysis as a rule are complemented by technical forecasting. The latter captures market sentiment, mood and expectations. But on the other hand history does not repeat itself exactly and patterns do not occur in exactly the same way. Circumstances may change and what has worked in the past will not always work in the future. Therefore any trading plan needs to be correctly implemented by using both aproaches: fundamental and technical. If both results are in agreement, the confidence in a forecast is greatly enhanced. Newcomers to the forecasting should observe some guidelines that may be of help. Basic framework of forecasting implies establishing outside markets contacts. Through dialogues the newcomer gains the market participants' rationale behind the forecast. Reading market documents helps to broaden perspective and makes it easier to single out key bullish and bearish fundamental factors. When new to the markets one should devote time to writing forecasts focusing his attention on the most important factors, identifying key points and patterns as they form. Step bv step the newcomer realises that markets sometimes behave irrationally. It is not easy to beat the markets because there are too many variables at work. But making market decisions and assuming responsibility the individual acquires experience in trading the market.
Э:
reverse - поворот назад to ride trends - использовать тренды
au to discount — обесценивать
э to complement -дополнять
э 'confidence —уверенность
о: to enhance - усиливать

e to affect — влиять
e perception — ощущение, восприятие
ai supply — предложение
cu demand - спрос
Э:
to occur - происходить, случаться
i to implement — претворять в жизнь, осуществлять
ае

ei
framework — каркас, структура
i: to beat smth. - обставить, побить
Э variable - переменная




Comprehension Questions

1. Who produces the fair value of the currency?
2. Why do currency prices fluctuate?
3. What is the technician's challenge?
4. What are the basic principles of traditional Technical Analysis?
5. How does history repeat itself?
6. Why do markets discount everything?
7. What approaches in forecasting yield good results?
8. By what events are markets driven now?
9. What precede upcoming political and economic events?
10. What saying reflects this process?
11. In what way do central banks influence financial markets?
12. How are the weaknesses of fundamental analysis complemented?
13. What are the guidelines that newcomers to forecasting should observe?

Exercises

Ex.1. Learn the terms and verb collocations and make up 20 sentences with them.



to agree about the price to produce a fair value to strengthen (to weaken) to run into selling pressure (buying interest) to grow in popularity to be reflected in the price to reflect shifts in Supply, and Demand to gauge changes in trend to be based on psychology to work in the past to lie in the past to estimate future direction to identify patterns to ride the rising trends to show signs of a reversal to discount everything to capture market sentiment to implement a trading plan to use technical approaches to be in agreement with
Ex. 2. Put questions to the underlined words in the text and let your partner answer them.
Ex. 3. Select the subordinate clauses and state of what kind they are (object clause, attributive clause
adverbial modifier clause of time, place, cause, etc.)
Ex. 4. Read and translate the text.
Ex. 5. Draw up a plan of the text and render it.


Comprehension Questions

1. Who produces the fair value of the currency?
2. Why do currency prices fluctuate?
3. What is the technician's challenge?
4. What are the basic principles of traditional Technical Analysis?
5. How does history repeat itself?
6. Why do markets discount everything?
7. What approaches in forecasting yield good results?
8. By what events are markets driven now?
9. What precede upcoming political and economic events?
10. What saying reflects this process?
11. In what way do central banks influence financial markets?
12. How are the weaknesses of fundamental analysis complemented?
13. What are the guidelines that newcomers to forecasting should observe?
Exercises
Ex.1. Learn the terms and verb collocations and make up 20 sentences with them.



to agree about the price to produce a fair value to strengthen (to weaken) to run into selling pressure (buying interest) to grow in popularity to be reflected in the price to reflect shifts in Supply, and Demand to gauge changes in trend to be based on psychology to work in the past to lie in the past to estimate future direction to identify patterns to ride the rising trends to show signs of a reversal to discount everything to capture market sentiment to implement a trading plan to use technical approaches to be in agreement with
Ex. 2. Put questions to the underlined words in the text and let your partner answer them.
Ex. 3. Select the subordinate clauses and state of what kind they are (object clause, attributive clause
adverbial modifier clause of time, place, cause, etc.)
Ex. 4. Read and translate the text.
Ex. 5. Draw up a plan of the text and render it.


Содержание




Расти, мое дерево, процветай, побольше плодов нам давай. Мыши не тронут, червь обойдёт, мои деньги дадут росток. Так тому и быть, и слово мое крепко, как бел-горюч камень.